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New report shows the socio-economic benefits of the industrial transition

An increase in Sweden's GDP of 2-3 percent - equivalent to an annual defense budget. 15-35 billion in increased tax revenues. 20,000 new jobs. This is part of the potential that lies in the pot when the industry in Norrbotten is transitioning. The new report Norrbotten: The industrial transition and its socio-economic impacts provides an overall picture of the profits that are within reach - and what is required. The report is now available in English.

A few copies of the report Norrbotten: The industrial transition and its socio-economic impacts

The report, which was first released in Swedish early May, shows in clear figures and examples the social benefits of the industrial transition in Norrbotten - for Sweden's economy, climate and demography. The industrial transition will increase Sweden's GDP by 2-3 percent, corresponding to SEK 80-160 billion per year, already in 2030. In comparison, 2 percent of GDP is what Sweden as a NATO country will spend on its defense every year.

The report also includes calculations on export value, tax revenues, climate benefits, jobs and demographics. For example, it is about 20,000 new jobs and an annual increase in tax revenue of SEK 15-35 billion.

But realizing this potential also requires investment. The report includes estimates of the scale of investments needed by 2030, including investments in power generation, electricity grids, transport infrastructure and community buildings.

It also provides clear figures on the imbalance in the distribution of risk and benefit between municipalities and the state. Municipalities are now estimated to account for 30-50% of investment costs, while the state receives 80% of the value created. This imbalance is harmful, both for the industry's transition and for the people who live in Norrbotten.

 – The report points out that the municipalities take most of the risk and Sverige AB gets most of the benefit. This is neither reasonable nor fair. For the sake of the local communities, for the sake of the people of Norrbotten, this imbalance must be corrected, says Anders Öberg, Chair of the Regional Board of Region Norrbotten.

Anders Öberg, regional councillor representing Sweden's Social Democratic Party.

One conclusion of the report is that it is now urgent to make decisions and get public investments in the order of 60-80 billion in place. But the transition also requires faster permit processes, guidance on land use and incentives to move to jobs.

These are big challenges to meet in five or six years. But the report concludes with an analysis of the dire consequences of letting this opportunity slip through Sweden's fingers: lost revenue, lost competitiveness and climate targets that will be almost impossible to achieve. 

 If we want to help secure Swedish industry for the next hundred years, it is high time to invest in what is needed to enable these initiatives, says Janus Brandin, Director of Regional Development at Region Norrbotten.

The report is based on a study of the impact of eight major industrial projects in Norrbotten, up to 2030. It is based on a number of open sources and reports, as well as analyses by the consulting firm McKinsey & Company. Region Norrbotten is responsible for the report's conclusions.

Read the report